Analysts at British bank HSBC have named the “most and least vulnerable stocks” in the European market, which is currently weighed down by a spike in corporate lending rates. “Across the economy, most corporate borrowing is at floating rates, thus our economists expect the bulk of the interest rate headwinds to emerge over the next eighteen months or so,” the analysts said in a Sept. 15 note. “Our analysis of publicly listed companies in Europe (FTSE All World) suggests that the weighted average cost of debt has already risen from about 0.42% in 2020 to over 3.7% currently. Leverage, as measured by net debt to EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization), is starting to rise again, albeit from low levels, while interest cover has fallen sharply since the beginning of this year,” they wrote. CNBC Pro takes a look at the bank’s two screens of “the most and least vulnerable” stocks: one for “cash-rich” companies and the other for “high leverage” names. ‘Cash-rich’ names HSBC named “cash-rich companies relatively immune to rising borrowing rates.” Companies in this category stand to benefit from a net cash position, or negative net debt, which makes them “relatively immune to challenges arising from higher bank borrowing rates environment,” the analysts said. Cash-rich companies have been beating the broader market since late last year. HSBC’s screens in this category include French luxury goods label Hermes International , with a net debt of 9,222 euros ($9,834.11), British food processing company Associated British Foods (net debt of 1,709.39 euros) and Swiss biotech player Bachem Holding (net debt of 271.15 euros). Other companies that HSBC named are global investment firm Prosus (net debt of 4,431.87 euros), Finnish telecommunication company Nokia (net debt of 4,376 euros) and utilities company Centrica (net debt of 871.31 euros). Names with high debt HSBC also screened for companies with high leverage, meaning high net debt to equity and net debt to EBITDA ratios. The debt maturity of these companies is greater than 25% in both this and next year. Companies with high debt are seen to be vulnerable to further rises in interest rates. Stocks that turned up on this screen, which the bank said “moderately underperformed the regional equity benchmark,” include companies with a net debt to equity ratio of more than 0.7x and cash conversion ratio of less than 1.0x. The companies also have a net debt to EBITDA ratio exceeding 1.5x and at least 50% higher than the sector’s average. German commercial vehicle manufacturer Daimler Truck Holding was among the names that turned up on the screen. Also on the screen were Italian energy infrastructure player Snam , British tobacco manufacturer Imperial Brands and German luxury and commercial automotive player Mercedes-Benz Group. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
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