The S & P 500 will wrap up the fourth quarter this week and is on track to gain about 5.5% over the three-month period from October through December, as of the close on Wednesday, Dec. 28. The positive performance represents the only quarter of gains in 2022, breaking what had been the longest losing streak since 2008. What made the fourth quarter stand out from the first three of the year? First off, equities finally found some reprieve from the strong U.S. dollar , which peaked on Sept. 27, right before the end of the third quarter. The strong dollar has been a headwind to multinationals all year because it makes revenues generated outside the U.S. smaller when converted from foreign currencies. Also helping equity valuations was the peak in Treasury yields on Oct. 24. After yet another volatile quarter in the books, we’ve reviewed how our portfolio fared in the 3 months ended Dec. 31, using the close on Dec. 28 as our reference point. Here’s a snapshot of the best and worst performers in the Investing Club’s 33-stock portfolio for the fourth quarter, starting with our top 4 performers. (Note: We’re excluding our most recent initiation, Emerson Electric (EMR), from the rankings since the stock was purchased in mid-December. Shares of this industrial automation company have gained about 30.1% in the fourth quarter.) Top performers Taking the crown was Halliburton ( HAL), with a huge gain of around 54.7% for the quarter. What a difference a quarter can make. Shares of this oil-services company were the biggest laggard in the portfolio during the third quarter . The turnaround in performance shows that Halliburton was briefly a broken stock, not a broken company. Earnings also did the trick. In late October, Halliburton delivered strong third-quarter results , including improved operating margins thanks to healthy demand for its equipment and services. The gains were even more impressive when considering that the price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed a volatile quarter roughly at the same price it traded at the start of October. Second place was a tie. Wynn Resorts (WYNN) gained 27.1% in the quarter. This was the second quarter in a row that Wynn made our top 4 list. Shares of this Macao-centric casino operator gained 10.6% in the third quarter. Wynn’s strong stock performance can be attributed to China’s pivot away from its strict zero-Covid policy . Wynn shares appreciated because investors finally gained some visibility into when the world’s second-largest economy will recover. It also helped that Wynn’s properties in Las Vegas and Boston continued to perform at a high level. Honeywell (HON) also climbed 27.1% in the quarter. Usually cyclicals are the ones that get hit when recession risks are fresh on investors’ minds. But, it was actually the industrials that were among the strongest performers in the quarter. In late October, Honeywell delivered a solid earnings beat for the third quarter and management raised the low end of its full-year outlook by about 15 cents a share. With Honeywell’s strong exposure to aerospace, oil-and-gas and non-residential construction, the company isn’t tied to the industrial end-markets that are currently facing declines. Fourth place was TJX Companies (TJX), which gained about 26.7% in the quarter. This was the second quarter in a row that TJX made our top 4 list. This off-price retailer was the portfolio’s top performer in the third quarter, gaining about 11.4%. The stock briefly broke above $80 a share and hit new all-time highs in reaction to a strong third-quarter earnings report . In addition to the positive results, management had been upbeat about the buying environment and merchandise opportunities heading into the holiday season. As an off-price retailer, TJX takes advantage of inventory gluts across the retail sector by purchasing quality brands at liquidation prices. The stocks that fared the best quarter-to-quarter changed frequently throughout the year. This highlights the difficulty of predicting what sector or group of stocks will outperform from one period to the next. It’s why we always strive to stay diversified and invest in high-quality companies across different industries. Worst performers Turning to what didn’t work in the fourth quarter, the worst performer for the club was Amazon (AMZN), which fell 27.6% in the quarter. Poor earnings and a disappointing fourth-quarter outlook were the major catalysts behind this decline. From online retail to its cloud unit, the weakening macroeconomic picture and high inflation negatively impacted nearly every part of Amazon’s business. It also didn’t help that Amazon stock was richly priced during a time in which valuations across the stock market have been adjusted due to higher interest rates. It has the highest price-to-earnings (PE) multiple of mega cap tech stock. Since Amazon has a premium PE multiple, it essentially has more room to fall. Second was Meta Platforms (META), which saw its share price come down by 14.2% in the fourth quarter. Meta went through a whole host of issues this quarter, mainly centering around its third-quarter earnings report . Revenues declined year-over-year for the second quarter in a row, but that was mostly anticipated by the market. What shocked the market the most was how management completely lost control over its expenses, with many billions of dollars earmarked for the Metaverse, an expensive endeavor with no real business case yet. Fortunately, Meta started to listen to the gripes of its shareholder base a few weeks later. The company announced it would lay off 13% of its workforce and tweaked lower its 2023 total expenses outlook. The news marked a step in the right direction, but Meta must do more to protect its earnings amid a slowdown in advertising spending. Bausch Health Companies (BHC) was the third worst-performing stock for the Club in the fourth quarter, with shares of this specialty pharmaceutials company dropping 11.6% in the quarter. There wasn’t much news impacting BHC this quarter, but its investment case remains a challenged one. Investors remain concerned about Bausch’s high debt load and lack of clarity around when a key drug, Xifaxan, will lose patent protection. This is a market that wants profitable companies with strong balance sheets, along with cash returns to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. Bausch may be profitable, but its bad balance sheet in a slowing economy will keep shareholders away. On the bright side, Bausch could move to spin off Bausch + Lomb (BLCO) in 2023, an event that would unlock value for BHC shareholders. The fourth worst performer was Walt Disney (DIS), which fell 10.8% in the quarter It all unraveled for Disney after it reported a much weaker-than-expected fiscal fourth quarter in November. Margins at the theme park division contracted and the losses from its streaming services swelled well beyond expectations. We made clear that a shakeup in leadership was necessary after that disaster of a quarter, and we got it. Bob Iger is back as CEO , having replaced Bob Chapek. He’s the steady hand Disney needs to course correct and provide more thoughtful navigation of cord-cutting at the company’s media division, while positioning the streaming business toward profitable growth. The common denominator this quarter was weakness in technology stocks. This group was once lauded for its secular growth characteristics, but as we have learned the hard way this year, many have closer ties to the economic cycle than previously thought. And if you aren’t profitable, then forget about it. An additional problem facing tech is that so many companies saw their businesses boom during the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, forcing them to overinvest, overspend and, some cases, increase inventories to keep up with the rapid uptick in demand. Now, many have become overstaffed, with bloated cost structures. What may be needed for these companies to sustainably rally again is to realign expense growth with the new reality of slowing revenue. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
Workers walk towards Halliburton Co. “sand castles” at an Anadarko Petroleum Corp. hydraulic fracturing (fracking) site north of Dacono, Colorado, U.S., on Tuesday, Aug. 12, 2014.
Jamie Schwaberow | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The S&P 500 will wrap up the fourth quarter this week and is on track to gain about 5.5% over the three-month period from October through December, as of the close on Wednesday, Dec. 28. The positive performance represents the only quarter of gains in 2022, breaking what had been the longest losing streak since 2008.
Sumber: www.cnbc.com
Post Views:
443
